The NFL has been one of the biggest sports leagues in history and fans are now spoiled for choice. While there are millions of viewers all over the world watching every single game at least once, this gives sports bettors thousands of betting opportunities. Just like any sporting event, this time around it is absolutely essential to understand how to manage your bets. It’s also an ideal opportunity to try out new strategies before the odds change drastically.
Fortunately, there’s nothing bad about gambling on both sides of the ball and in fact you will win at it just as often if not more than most other sports. So, with everything going on in 2020 and beyond, how can you get yourself ready to take bets, when you have so many opportunities to do so?
Well, don’t worry! We’re here to help. Here are 8 tips to come up with a winning betting strategy:
1. Pick a Team That Never Outgains You In One Game
As of today, we can’t accurately predict who would end up getting the touchdown that would help them win the championship. It’s just that simple, you know? But it is our responsibility and duty as bettors to stay close to the numbers that we see, just because they are there.
What do you say, coach Tom Brady of the Kansas City Chiefs or Patrick Mahomes of the Buffalo Bills, do we really need to be worried about what each team might do? Let’s look at some stats, shall we?
The two former first-round picks were thrown out of their respective teams last week in Week 13 of the NFL’s regular season. They both went on to lose, which means you have to pick them to win on the betting line as well. And yet, both players got up on their heels and played better against the other squads. They combined for five touchdowns (two carries) and three fumbles (three carry totals combined).
So let’s go ahead and make the same mistake a little bit differently — think Patrick Mahomes versus Mahomes. If Mahomes had scored last week and Patrick Mahomes hadn’t lost, Mahomes would win by 7 points in his favor. Mahomes wouldn’t earn enough yards in coverage to do anything but he wouldn’t risk throwing interceptions. He could get into a groove.
Mahomes doesn’t throw interceptions. He gets sacked a lot, which leads to fewer snaps for the quarterback if he does throw them. He gets caught on the run by linebacker Dion Lewis and plays short and to him, that’s exactly what the rest of the league is using. This isn’t his fault, no matter what happens.
These defenses have been designed to block everything and you can blame the receivers for giving them plenty of material to work with. Yet, this is still Mahomes’ fault. His play wasn’t good enough. He throws too many interceptions, thus becoming known as “the interception man”. He couldn’t beat Mahomes on third down conversions.
He throws interceptions on key drives and his throws don’t fall where they should. Maybe that’s because he needs to rush the ball, while being under pressure all the time. On offense, Mahomes throws way past his targets and has trouble making tight throws once the ball leaves the ground. When it comes to blocking, Mahomes does indeed suck!
We see these problems popping up all the time in the NFL and in football in general. Most people blame these issues on the offensive line. Unfortunately for Mahomes and Mahomes, that isn’t always the case. As much as Mahomes hates speaking during practices or pregame, he does get into foul trouble on occasion, a common occurrence in pro football.
This happens because of the nature of his skill set. Still, you don’t want to bet on Mahomes to be less than his opponent and expect him to turn the ball over in his favor against you…so why bet on Mahomes? Why? Because Mahomes is inarguably better! He’s a safer bet, sure! So, take advantage of this fact, when you know it is there. Use Mahomes as a freebie!
2. Start Off Early For Any Odds At All
This one is easy. Well, I mean, it is the truth. Even with the massive number of games to come, there will be the odd few who end up holding the cards. Don’t believe me? Look at the big picture, look at how each team does their thing.
Are you willing to give them some early wins? Of course you’re not. Unless, of course, they blow out every single game. Then I suggest starting off early for any odds in your favor, even if it means taking a shot on the side at the total.
The reason this works is because a team that is going to get blown out is unlikely to have a late lead. The best bet is to kick them off early.
By doing this, you get a huge piece or bonus and get bigger back off the very beginning of your betting journey. It’s a smart way of playing the system and seeing the results of the wagers you place.
The first team is likely to win. Even if they blow out, you could still make money by starting them early at an odd-even split. You know, that way you gain the confidence to start them later. It’s a great idea for beginners, who have no clue of how to win!
3. Place Your bets On Low Odds
You must be familiar with the phrase, “Don’t bet on something you don’t understand”, haven’t you? Okay, then you aren’t supposed to put your entire life savings toward one game or event.
Sure, it may not be possible to pay for every eventuality that you see coming your way and they will happen on you. However, placing bets on low odds will make sure that you are well prepared to deal with those moments.
For instance, the Vikings and Washington are two teams that are not favored in their division and they will win. There’s a good chance that both teams will end up losing all the games that they play. Therefore, if you bet on a high-scoring team, it might be a fool’s errand.
If you want to place a bet on low odds, then what better way to do so than to bet on the Minnesota Vikings? The Vikings have a 4-2 record and they are the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. How bad are they? Only if Minnesota scores 40 or fewer points per play and the Washington Football Team scores 45 or fewer points per play.
And that’s saying something. Washington will win on Friday night at Detroit. Plus, who cares? It has already happened, as long as they didn’t screw it up on Thursday Night Football.
4. Follow Close Calls Better Than Earning Them
There have been a few moments during my career where I’ve made a loss a loss, and ended up losing the game. Or worse, the outcome that I thought was certain was turned in my favor.
But there have been no situations, as far as I know, that have been decided on in that manner. Yes, there are times, as I already mentioned, when a bettor becomes a victim of circumstance or luck, but those are rare occurrences and never can be predicted.
There can be a lot of things that can lead to such outcomes. Some of them are the result of a mistake on your part, poor decisions on the board, or poor preparation, as well as factors outside of the game itself. Nonetheless, how can you possibly bet your future on such moments? Luckily for you, there is a lot that you can control. The only fact that you can’t control is how you choose to react to such moments.
Being able to respond appropriately is your job as bettor. Be prepared to call for another bet, or decide to sit down and enjoy a beer after the game. Whatever you decides to do, though, don’t feel like running your fingers through a brick wall to find out how it’ll lay. Instead, sit up and read. Read from online reviews, watch videos, and look at the odds while eating a burger.
Afterward, ask the question, “What am I going to do about this situation?” Answer it honestly with a decision. If a gamble seems impossible after reading reviews, watch a replay of the play, and realize that you probably won’t even make the $10 that someone else won’t! Trust me; it’ll be easier for you to quit rather than stay and fail at this situation once again.
5. Put Away That Money Before Every Match
To some this may seem like an obvious concept to all who have ever followed sports at all, yet for others, it is quite an effective way of putting away money. If you are spending a significant amount of money, you will see the value of knowing that any amount available on the line is gone and all your hard-earned cash is safely tucked away.
It seems that everyone understands the concept of cutting costs. The more that you spend, the more you become accustomed to budgeting and saving money. From buying tickets to buying food at the restaurants, all items are considered expenses. Often, money is spent to achieve a particular goal and not used otherwise.
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