Despite lower lows being formed on the BITCOIN TRADING daily chart, many analysts still believe the market is not in a bear market. While many short-term sellers are panicking and selling their tokens in loss, most hold term holders are expecting a rebound back to $100,000 or even higher
Considering the rate at which people are adopting Bitcoin, a 44% decline from its all-time high at $69,000 is not expected by many traders. This has caused great fear in the market with the “fear and greed” index sitting in extreme fear since last month
An analyst of Bitcoin (BTC), Willy Woo, and also a software agency Hypersheet co-founder, have confidence that the bear market is not here yet for BTC even though peak fear levels are observed.
About Willy Woo’s post on the 1st of February 2021, he posted a graph showing an adoption curve of BTC users and internet users as of 1997. He captioned it by saying ” In terms of adoption, Bitcoin has roughly the same users as the internet had in 1997. But Bitcoin is growing much faster. Next four years on the current path will bring users to 1 billion people which is the equivalent of 2005 for the internet”.
Woo referred to major metrics involving a huge number of BTC long-term holders (5 months or more wallet holders) and increasing accumulation rate while speaking on Sunday in a podcast. The podcast titled “what bitcoin did” was anchored by Peter McCormack. He suggested that the market has not changed its direction to a bearish trend.
On the 29th of January, Willy Woo took to his Twitter page and posted a chart of exchange net flows with the caption “I guess BTC is in demand”. He posted another chart showing patterns of how coins move to and from Whale Holders. According to the chart, there was a rapid surge in buying rate at a very cheap price. He captioned it as “probably institutional money”
Woo added that in the short term, this type of pullback is not gotten without a relief bounce and that a bearish downtrend to $20,000 does not seem feasible. While addressing the feasibility, he compared it to the 2018 crash which happened for a year, and that this would happen in three months if it gets to that price.
Ever since BTC got to its all-time high in November at $69,000, its price has gradually dropped to around 44%, the analyst mentioned futures trading as the major cause of this flat performance and gradual decline since three months ago.
Woo stated that investors are now buying as the demand for Bitcoin is increasing. Long-term holders who were sad about the price action are getting their hopes back as future traders who were shorting the price of Bitcoin have stopped at around $40,000 level. Prices are rebounding currently indicating that accumulation is on the way.
Willy Woo told Scott Melker in an interview recently that a bull run should have occurred in the first quarter of this year. And that Bitcoin is preparing massively for the bullish run. So basically, Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase. He continued by saying the road for Bitcoin’s bullish run has not been cleared and that it is currently accumulating again since the steady bearish run in May 2021
Woo proposed that BTC futures market roll out and mainstream traders increasing influx over some years back has changed BTC market structure significantly by which there is a direct correlation of price to risk on-risk off from large traders having a look at the traditional stocks.
He also said that looking back at on-chain in 2019 down to 2020, what investors were basically doing was that they were accumulating prices but their actions didn’t impact the price. This is because the price was primarily controlled by future exchanges’ traders.
He concluded by arguing that the bear market’s major indicator is normally when growers of new coins or “newbs” are in the larger part.
Woo’s prediction is structurally sound for the second half of the year as he highlighted a shift in the ownership of tokens from holders who are holding in the short term to holders who are holding in the long term.